In Plus Episode 305, we review stock market returns month-to-date and the latest economic releases. We discuss the impact of Tesla and other high-flying stocks being added to stock indices and a fundamental approach to indexing that avoids large weightings in the most expensive stocks. We review how stock analysts estimate company earnings and why companies are more likely to exceed analysts' estimates today versus prior to 2002. Finally, we consider the risk and opportunities with the … [Read more...]
245 Plus: March 2019 Mid Month Update, Inverted Yield Curve, Puts on ETFs, and a Private Lending Limited Partnership
In Plus episode 245 for the week of March 23, 2019, we look at investment conditions as of mid-March including flash PMI reports. We revisit the accuracy of inverted yield curves in predicting recessions, and what is different this time now that the yield curve has inverted. We look at why long term interest rates could increase during the next recession. David discusses his recent trade to buy puts on two non-investment grade fixed income ETFs. Finally, we look at a limited partnership … [Read more...]
