This May 2015 mid month report discusses: Global stock market returns month-to-date. Putting this month's increase in global interest rates in perspective. A review of a global recession probability model. … [Read more...]
Investment Conditions – May 2015
This is the May 2015 investment conditions report and market exposure recommendation. It includes both a written version and audio commentary. Listen To The May 2015 Investment Conditions Audio Commentary Audio Download Download the audio file May 2015 Investment Conditions Favorable investment conditions can be thought of as favorable weather. Just as you don’t launch a sail boat when heavy storms are likely, there are favorable investing conditions when the sun is shining and there is a … [Read more...]
April 2015 Mid Month Strategy Update
This is the April 2015 mid month report discusses: Global stock market returns in April. How the China stock market is overbought and what I am doing about it. A review of the IMF World Economic Outlook report. Why I don't have exposure to Latin America. A review of deflation trends around the world. A review of disappointing U.S. economic data and the Citi Economic Surprise Index. A portfolio update. … [Read more...]
Investment Conditions – April 2015
This is the April 2015 investment conditions report and market exposure recommendation. It includes both a written version and audio commentary. … [Read more...]
Investment Conditions – March 2015
This is the March 2015 investment conditions report and market exposure recommendation. It includes both a written version and audio commentary. … [Read more...]
Investment Conditions – February 2015
This is the February 2015 investment conditions report and market exposure recommendation. … [Read more...]
Investment Conditions – January 2015
This is the January 2015 investment conditions update and market exposure recommendation. Favorable investment conditions can be thought of as favorable weather. Just as you don’t launch a sail boat when heavy storms are likely, there are favorable investing conditions when the sun is shining and there is a tailwind that raises the likelihood of positive portfolio returns. Identifying favorable conditions is much easier than predicting specific events. It is the difference between … [Read more...]
Economic Conditions Remain GREEN
In the December 2014 Investment Conditions report, I labeled Economic and Central Bank trends as GREEN, suggesting that global economic and central bank trends were tailwinds for stocks. The primary measure I use to determine global economic trends are Purchaser Manager Indices (PMIs), which are monthly surveys of businesses conducted by Markit and other providers. Generally, a reading above 50 suggests an economy is expanding while a reading below 50 suggests an economy is … [Read more...]
Investment Conditions – December 2014
Each month on the Hub, I formally review investment conditions. Favorable investment conditions can be thought of as favorable weather. Just as you don’t launch a sail boat when heavy storms are likely, there are favorable investing conditions when the sun is shining and there is a tailwind that raises the likelihood of positive portfolio returns. Identifying favorable conditions is much easier than predicting specific events. It is the difference between predicting that it will be cold … [Read more...]
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