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You are here: Home / Archives for luck

408: Is Success Due to Hard Work, Talent, or Luck?

November 2, 2022 by David Stein · Updated November 19, 2022

How to survive in a world where luck and randomness play a pivotal role. Topics covered include: What are power laws What are the narrative fallacy and hindsight bias What are examples of domains where randomness has contributed to success What are ways to distinguish investing skill from luck How sixth-century philosopher Boethius had an accurate view of chance What are ways we can benefit from good luck while protecting ourselves from bad luck Show … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: luck, Pareto distribution, power law, work

224: Mastering the Market Cycle – Howard Marks

October 3, 2018 by David Stein · Updated August 10, 2022

How to position your investment portfolio based on market cycles. Investing principles from Howard Marks' new book Mastering the Market Cycle. Photo by Darius Bashar In this episode you’ll learn: How have U.S. stocks performed relative to non-U.S.How to position investment portfolios based on cycles.What is asset selection and why there are more opportunities in extreme times.How luck and skill play a roll in investing. Show Notes The ‘Dumb’ Money Is Bailing on U.S. Stocks. … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: cycles, luck, Marks (Howard), skill

203: Is Investing More Like Poker or Chess?

May 2, 2018 by David Stein · Updated October 19, 2022

How to make better investing and life decisions. Photo by Michał Parzuchowski In this episode you’ll learn: What is the difference between chess and poker.Why we need to separate the decision process from the outcome.How to improve the quality of our investment decisions.What are are wu-wei and qi and what role do they play in better decision making. Show Notes Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke Thinking Fast and Slow … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: decisions, Duke (Annie), Kahneman (Daniel), luck, resulting, risk management, skill, Slingerland (Edward), Tversky (Amos), wu-wei, Zhuangzi

MNY031 Plus: Luck versus Skill

November 22, 2014 by David Stein · Updated April 29, 2021

In this week's Money For the Rest of Us Plus episode, I discuss: Boethius' view on luck, skill, fate and providence from his book written in the early Middle Ages and how he foreshadowed complex adaptive systems. How complex systems have local uncertainty and global certainty. What is a narrative fallacy. How creativity functions within a complex adaptive system. The episode length is 17 minutes. … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Money Plus Tagged With: complexity, luck

31: The Role of Luck In Success

November 19, 2014 by David Stein · Updated October 28, 2021

How luck and skill intertwine to make you successful. Dr. DeNo In this episode, you'll learn: Why most successful people point to luck as the reason for their success.Henry David Thoreau's view of luck.Why we need skill to take advantage of luck.Why we should pursue complex domains.Why we need to take big leaps.Why we should avoid boredom. Show Notes Hack The Entrepreneur Podcast Creativity: Flow and Psychology of Discovery and Invention by Mihaly … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: luck

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