The U.S has traditionally been a safe haven for investing, but that hasn’t been the case in 2025. We explore three economic and narrative regimes and consider why we may be witnessing a shift after 12 years of U.S. outperformance.
Topics covered include:
- What was the narrative and economic and financial performance from 1995–2001, 2002–2012, and 2012–2024.
- How the performance of the U.S. dollar impacted returns
- Why did economic forecasters predict the U.S. national debt would be paid off in 2011, and why were they wrong?
- Signs that the current economic and financial narrative is shifting.
Show Notes
Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product—FRED Economic Data
Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers—FRED Economic Data
Donald Trump vs Mr Market by Tim Harford—The Financial Times
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Transcript
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