We analyze long-term stock returns when investing at market peaks and bottoms, and when stocks are cheap or expensive. We also share what we think stocks will return over the next decade and why. Finally, we simulate the investment outcomes for someone who invests $50 per week. Show Notes Episode 566 Slides Episode Sponsors Get the free guide from NetSuite: Aligning for the Agentic Era: How AI Is Changing Everyday Work Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% … [Read more...]
565: Small Gains, Big Losses: The Hidden Risk in Steady Income
In this episode, we explore why the income we earn isn't the same as the return. We show how option income strategies work, what their historical returns have been, what drives the return, and what reasonable return expectations are. We show why option income strategies have a positive expected return while sports betting has a negative expected return. Finally, we look at other areas where we confuse income with the total return. Show Notes Variance Risk Premia by Peter Carr … [Read more...]
564: The Financial System Will Be Hacked
Bad actors will use AI to disrupt the financial system, transportation networks, and utilities. We should prepare now for this inevitability. We share how in this episode. We also explain why the bull market in gold will likely continue. Topics covered include: Show Notes Episode 564 Slide Deck and Charts Brief independent investigation of agents’ behavior, reasoning and collaboration in the OpenAI / Hugging Face hacking incident by Ryan Greenblatt, Ajeya Cotra, … [Read more...]
561: How to Navigate the AI Debt Bubble
We explore the expected size of AI-related debt, which vehicles hold it, what could go wrong, and how to protect yourself. Topics covered include: Show Notes AI debt slide deck used for episode RBC Weighs $2 Billion Risk Transfer to Hedge Data Center-Linked Loans by Esteban Duarte and Paula Sambo—Bloomberg Hyperscalers Tap External Financing as AI Capex Outruns Cash Flow—FactSet Insight What History Tells Us About The AI Investment Boom by Larry Swedroe—Financial … [Read more...]
560: Is Inflation Manipulated? What To Do About It
How inflation numbers are manipulated to appear lower. How to change your mindset about inflation to get ahead of it. Topics covered include: Show Notes Preview of the 2026 Annual Update of the National Economic Accounts—BEA The Inflation Outlook by Governor Stephen I. Miran—U.S. Federal Reserve Toward A More Accurate Measure Of The Cost Of Living by The Advisory Commission To Study The Consumer Price Index —SSA A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting … [Read more...]
559: A Listener’s Path from Zero to Millionaire in 10 Years
David shares nine lessons a listener followed to become a millionaire. Topics covered include: Show Notes There are no show notes for this episode. Episode Sponsors NetSuite Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Related Episodes 498: What I Learned Investing in the Past Decade 454: How To Invest – Ten Rules of Thumb for Individual Investors Transcript Download Transcript Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us. This is a personal finance … [Read more...]
558: Will You Be Forced to Own SpaceX and Other AI Stocks?
SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are all going public. Why now? And what will their weight be in index funds? What other U.S. ETF options are there if you don't want to have such a high concentration in stocks tied to AI. And finally, if you do buy SpaceX, what would need to happen to earn a reasonable return on your investment? Show Notes Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Form S-1 Registration Statment Under the Securities Act of 1933—SEC Elon Musk Is Dropping a Boulder in a … [Read more...]
557: Don’t Fall in the Dividend Trap
We explore the free dividend fallacy and how it applies to option income strategies. We break down the return drivers of covered call ETFs and examine the long-term performance record and volatility. Finally, we explain why it's better to own a single stock than a single-stock covered call ETF like MSTY, NVDY, or TSLY offered by YieldMax. Show Notes The Dividend Disconnect by Samuel M. Hartzmark and David H. Solomon—Ivey Sam Hartzmark on Dividends—Meb Faber Research The … [Read more...]
556: We Are All Wayfinders
Why we have to navigate investing, business, and life with a compass rather than a GPS. David also provides an update on what he has learned from hosting live portfolio cohorts and letting AI analyze his portfolio trades over the past 12 years. Show Notes Almost Reckless by Amy Smilovic—Penguin Random House Episode Sponsors Square – Get up to $200 in hardware Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Related Episodes 555: Five Practices That Have Shaped My … [Read more...]
554: There Is No Perfect Portfolio. Just Good Enough
Why portfolio construction is messy, personal, and never perfect. We compare the pros and cons of several portfolio strategies, including target-date funds, risk parity, and role-based portfolios. We conclude with three AI-related fallacies that will help us better navigate the current moment. Show Notes Why Everything Suddenly Is ‘Perfect’ by Paula Marantz Cohen—The Wall Street Journal Your Perfect Portfolio by Cullen Roche—Pan MacMillan My Core Investment Values by Peter … [Read more...]
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