Given climate change and other risks, how should you invest for the next forty years? Topics covered include: What predictions from the last forty years came true and which didn't Why the next forty years will have a lot of similarities to the last forty years despite the promise of AI Why the scale and complexity of the world make big transitions away from oil, cement, and natural gas unlikely Why economic growth and consumption will likely continue leading to positive … [Read more...]
378 Plus: A Frustrating Time To Invest and Did BulletShares Underperform?
In Plus Episode 378, we discuss the fear, uncertainty, and frustration we can feel investing in the current environment. We also look at how to estimate the performance of BulletShare ETFs, which are ETFs that hold bonds and have fixed maturities. We consider why a member's BulletShare ETF fell well short of his expectations. … [Read more...]
377: What If It’s Different This Time?
What can we do to prepare if the Russian-Ukraine war gets even worse? Topics covered include: How risk and uncertainty differ as does how we manage themWhat we can learn from Ukraine and Russian citizens on dealing with uncertaintyWhat will be the financial impact of the sanctions against Russia and the ruble collapseWhy and how we should all prepare for potential cyberattacksWhy now is the time to make sure you have an appropriate asset allocationHow holding dollars, euros or … [Read more...]
369: Listener Q&A 2
We answer listeners' questions on a variety of financial topics to close out the year. Topics covered include: Estimating financial market returns in the next thirty years Investing in art Whether stocks will no longer exist How to start investing Fidelity's new Bitcoin ETF How mutual funds are priced How to teach family members about investing Volatility versus drawdowns How to face the uncertainty of crashing stocks, rising interest rates, and numerous other … [Read more...]
324: 2020—The Year We Will Never Forget
A review of how the pandemic, financial markets, and government policy evolved in 2020 to make for an unforgettable year. Topics covered include: Why the Covid-19 pandemic ranks as the second worst in modern history What is the difference between risk and uncertainty and how our investing should be different when dealing with uncertainty What portfolio changes did David make in 2020 and how should he have invested if he had perfect foresight Why speculative assets such as … [Read more...]
What Is Risk vs Uncertainty?
Risk is when the odds or probabilities of future events can be estimated. Uncertainty is when the list of possible future events is unknown, so their odds of occurring cannot be estimated. So how do we make decisions under risk versus uncertainty? ARTICLE TABLE OF CONTENTS (Skip to Section) Risk and InsuranceUncertainty DefinedRisk Versus UncertaintyMaking Decisions Under Risk Making Decisions Under UncertaintyConfusing Risk Versus UncertaintyHow To Make Better … [Read more...]
236: How Investors Cope With Radical Uncertainty
How heuristics, filters and reasonable stories help us cope with radical uncertainty and have the courage to make investment decisions. Photo by Tom Grimbert In this episode you’ll learn: Strategies for coping with uncertainty.How to avoid being caught up in a bubble or mania.Why even central banks need a coping strategy.How money helps hedge against an uncertain future. Show Notes Centralverse.org The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy by … [Read more...]
193: Why Plan If Life Is So Unpredictable?
How planning helps us avoid catastrophic errors while maintaining flexibility and margins of safety allow us to thrive even if our plans don't work out. Photo by NASA In this episode you’ll learn: The difference between planning to never fail and planning for small failures.Why traditional financial plans have up to 40% chance of failure but we should plan anyway.How to play not to lose.Why there is joy in the journey. Show Notes Eyes in the sky: a revolution in … [Read more...]
158: How To Invest Like A Cockroach
How reserves, slack and simple rules of thumb help us deal with radical uncertainty. Why the next financial crisis is unlikely to be like the last one. Photo by Ian Jacobs In this episode you’ll learn: Why the world can't be solved but has to be lived. How slack and following rules of thumb can help us deal with radical uncertainty What are water rights. What is an emergent phenomena. How to invest like a cockroach. Show Notes The End of Theory: Financial Crisis, … [Read more...]
