Central bankers set policy with incomplete information, unobservable targets, and constant trade-offs between growth, inflation, and employment. In this episode, we delve into how the fight for Federal Reserve independence could impact markets, interest rates, and your financial future. Topics covered include: Show Notes 2025 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy—The Federal Reserve Board Trump says U.S. interest rate is at least 3 points too … [Read more...]
489: Why Did Markets Sell Off? What Should You Do?
We examine three factors that contributed to this week's big stock market declines, analyze whether a recession is imminent, and examine David's recent portfolio changes. Topics covered include: Show Notes Transcript of Chair Powell’s FOMC Press Conference July 31, 2024—The Federal Reserve Goolsbee Says Fed Won’t Overreact to One Month’s Data by Catarina Saraiva and Ananya Chag—Bloomberg Congressional Budget Office Updates Baseline: Deficit Spending is 27 Percent Higher … [Read more...]
449: The House of Cards: Evaluating Economic and Financial Warning Signs
What are the economic and financial system early warning signs that we should heed rather than get caught up in fearmongering? When should we start to worry about ballooning budget deficits, the national debt, a currency collapse, or the stock market? Topics covered include: Show Notes The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity by David Graeber and David Wengrow—Macmillan How Much Is Enough? Money and the Good Life by Robert Skidelsky and Edward Skidelsky—Penguin … [Read more...]
448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium
Why you might want to lock in higher yields now, given real interest rates are the highest they have been in 15 years. Topics covered include: Show Notes Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Structural Shifts in the Global Economy—Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Policymaking in an age of shifts and breaks by Christine Lagarde—European Central Bank Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead by Jerome H. Powell—The Federal Reserve Bank Structural Shifts in the Global … [Read more...]
404: Why Is the U.S. Dollar So Strong? Will It Continue?
What has caused the U.S. dollar's currency exchange rate to be the strongest in twenty years? How a strong dollar leads to slower global economic growth and falling asset prices. Topics covered include: Show Notes Wall St blames missteps at FedEx as parcel service fails to deliver Steff Chávez and Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson—Financial Times The Global Dollar Cycle by Maurice Obstfeld and Haonan Zhou, BPEA Conference Drafts, September 8–9, 2022—Brookings Papers on Economic … [Read more...]
388: Will Quantitative Tightening Lead To Even Greater Financial Losses?
How financial markets and the economy performed last time the Federal Reserve took away the punch bowl by raising its policy rate and pursuing quantitative tightening. Things worked out fine that time. Will it be different this time? Topics covered include: Where did the phrase take away the punch bowl come fromHow central bank actions can slow the economy and lower inflation.The difference between having cash and having wealthHow quantitative easing and quantitative tightening workWhat … [Read more...]
383: How to Be a Successful Contrarian Investor
How contrarians combine value and momentum to take positions opposite what the consensus believes. What is the consensus view in today's financial markets and how are contrarians positioned. Topics covered include: Five attributes of successful investorsWhy does the consensus expect stagflationHow central banks have performed in previous tightening cyclesThree reasons central banks tightening results in a recessionWhen have interest rates peaked in prior tightening cyclesHow stocks tend … [Read more...]
342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?
How today's inflationary environment is similar and different from the great inflation of the 1970s. What are the best assets to protect your portfolio if the next great inflation is here. Topics covered include: Show Notes A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation—Money For The Rest of Us Great Inflation 2.0? Lessons from the 1970s by Simon Macadam—Capital Economics When it comes to inflation, how much fortitude does the Fed have? by Sebastion … [Read more...]
338: The National Debt, Inflation, and the U.S. Dollar—What Could Go Wrong?
With a ballooning U.S. federal budget deficit, a growing national debt, and double digit increases in the money supply, is it time to bet against the dollar? Topics covered include: Show Notes Where Did Americans Move in 2020? by Janelle Cammenga—Tax Foundation Velocity of M2 Money Stock (M2V) Chart—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYFSGDA188S) Chart—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis How the CPI … [Read more...]
336 Plus: A Simple Money Supply, Money Creation Analogy
In Plus Episode 336 for the week of March 27, 2021, we discuss some new site additions for Plus members. We also explore an analogy to explain under what circumstances the money supply and purchasing power increase and under what circumstances they don't. We use the analogy to explain what is happening currently and under what circumstances it could lead to higher inflation. Finally, we review why Hoisington Investment Management Company believes inflation will stay low and interest … [Read more...]
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