We examine three factors that contributed to this week's big stock market declines, analyze whether a recession is imminent, and examine David's recent portfolio changes. Topics covered include: The benefits of looking at market and economic trends monthly How bad was the recent U.S. employment report and what is the Sahm Rule What are leading economic indicators saying about recession risk Why the Federal Reserve will be lowering its policy rate, leading to lower cash … [Read more...]
471 Plus More on Covered Calls, Shorting Volatility, and Investing Emergency Funds
On Plus episode 471, we compare covered call strategies, selling puts, and shorting volatility. We explore the purpose of emergency funds and how to invest them. … [Read more...]
405: When Volatility Spikes, Financial Things Break
What is volatility and what causes it to rise and fall? How volatility itself contributes to more volatility such as in the example of the chaotic UK government bond market where long-term yields have increased by 4% in 2022. Topics covered include: How the role of volatility has changed in financial markets What caused UK interest rates to spike and long-term bond investors to lose 50% What is liability-driven investment What drives increases in volatility and volatility … [Read more...]
346 Plus: Mid Month Update, Inflation, and Simplify ETFs
In Plus Episode 346, we review market performance and recent economic releases including the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index for evidence that inflation is transitory or more permanent. We also analyze several option-based ETFs sponsored by Simplify, including ETFs that benefit from convexity and one that harvests the volatility risk premium. … [Read more...]
311 Plus: Option Strategies, Volatility Investing, and Hedging Stock Portfolios
Plus Episode 311 shares the audio from a new video on how call and put options work, how put options can be used to protect against portfolio losses, options-based ETFs and how to go long and short volatility. … [Read more...]
304 Plus: July 2020 Investment Conditions and Portfolio Review
In Plus episode 304, we review current investment conditions and the potential impact of the Covid-19 resurgence in the U.S and why now is a time to be cautious. We also review potential fixed income options for reallocating cash. … [Read more...]
283: Why You Should Care About Carry Trades
How investors make money with carry trades, how central banks encourage such trades, and what are the dangers to financial markets and the economy when carry trades get too big. What Is a Carry Trade? Carry trades are investments in which the investor collects an income stream “as long as nothing happens,” as Tim Lee, Jaime Lee and Kevin Coldiron describe in their book The Rise of Carry. By nothing, the authors mean there is price stability in the underlying asset on which the carry … [Read more...]
254: Should You Be 100% Invested In Stocks?
What are the pros and cons of having your entire investment portfolio invested in stocks versus a multi-asset class portfolio? In this episode you’ll learn: What are some investment options if you want to be 100% invested in stocks.What attributes do you need as an investor to have an all stock portfolio.Why it is difficult for active managers to outperform.Why an all Japanese stock portfolio has severely underperformed for 25 years and how it is possible that a U.S. stock … [Read more...]
159: What You Need To Know About Volatility
What is volatility, what determines it and how to invest in it. But should you? Photo by Jamie Street In this episode you’ll learn: Why extreme events undermine the average. What is the VIX volatility index. Why the tightening of credit conditions contributes to higher volatility for stocks and bonds. How the demand to sell volatility is keeping volatility low. What to consider when investing in VIX. To learn more about investing in VIX ETFs, check out this helpful … [Read more...]
103: How To Reenter the Stock Market
Here are the three things you need to coax yourself back into the stock market if you are on the sidelines. Plus, why short-term market declines are difficult to accurately predict but bear market declines can often be anticipated and avoided. Photo by Darren Flinders In this episode you'll learn: Why moving back into the stock market after being on the sidelines is not just a tactical decision, but an emotional one.What is the law of large numbers.How often does the market … [Read more...]
