Central bankers set policy with incomplete information, unobservable targets, and constant trade-offs between growth, inflation, and employment. In this episode, we delve into how the fight for Federal Reserve independence could impact markets, interest rates, and your financial future. Topics covered include: Show Notes 2025 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy—The Federal Reserve Board Trump says U.S. interest rate is at least 3 points too … [Read more...]
501 Plus: Why Interest Rates Are Rising, Maximum Drawdowns, and Buffer ETF Underperformance
In Plus episode 501, we review why Federal Reserve Chair Powell said the Fed isn't in a hurry to lower its policy rate. We revisit why interest rates are increasing. David shares the expected return, ranges, and maximum drawdown of his portfolio. We analyze why buffer ETFs can lag the underlying reference assets when the stock market is appreciating. Become a Member If you would like to listen to this episode of Money For the Rest of Us Plus, you can do so by becoming a Money For … [Read more...]
495: The Federal Reserve Cut Rates. What Should We Do Now?
What does the Federal Reserve's policy rate cut mean for our portfolios? Will interest rates keep falling? What changes should we make? Topics covered include: Show Notes Asset Camp FedWatch—CME Group Summary of Economic Projections—US Federal Reserve Investors may be getting the Federal Reserve wrong, again—The Economist Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Yield to Maturity Is Always Received as Promised by Richard J. … [Read more...]
464: More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall
Professional investors and other market participants are lousy at forecasting interest rates. Here are three more options to lock in higher yields today. Topics covered include: Show Notes Investors may be getting the Federal Reserve wrong, again—The Economist Today's Best Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuities—Immediate Annuities Zero-Coupon Treasuries Flew Off Shelves During October Yield Surge by Elizabeth Stanton—Bloomberg Episode Sponsors Monarch Money – Get an … [Read more...]
453: The Price of Money – 700 Years of Falling, Can Interest Rates Keep Rising?
Interest rates have been sliding for seven centuries. Dive into the historical forces driving this trend and examine whether the recent interest rate spike is just a blip on the radar. Topics covered include: Show Notes The Price of Money Is Going Up, and It’s Not Because of the Fed by Jamie Rush, Martin Ademmer, Maeva Cousin, Tom Orlik, and Rich Miller—Bloomberg Secular stagnation is not over by Olivier Blanchard—Peterson Institute for International Economics A big … [Read more...]
450: How Higher Interest Rates Alter Our Financial Blueprint
We explore six impacts of higher interest rates on housing, capital projects, stock buybacks, excess returns for stocks, bonds, and other asset classes, and individual opportunity costs. Topics covered include: Show Notes Summary of Economic Projections—The Federal Reserve The Apartment Market Is Hitting a Construction Lull by Will Parker—The Wall Street Journal 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States—FRED Economic Data Americans Are Still Spending Like … [Read more...]
448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium
Why you might want to lock in higher yields now, given real interest rates are the highest they have been in 15 years. Topics covered include: Show Notes Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Structural Shifts in the Global Economy—Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Policymaking in an age of shifts and breaks by Christine Lagarde—European Central Bank Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead by Jerome H. Powell—The Federal Reserve Bank Structural Shifts in the Global … [Read more...]
412: Where to Invest Your Cash Savings for Higher Yields
What are the best options for safely investing cash. Topics covered include: Show Notes a16z-backed Tellus wants to offer consumers a much better savings rate. Here’s how. by Mary Ann Azevedo—TechCrunch Factors Affecting Reserve Balances—U.S. Federal Reserve Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury: Wednesday Level—FRED What if the Federal Reserve books losses because of its quantitative easing? by William B. English and Donald … [Read more...]
410 Plus: TIPS Auction Results, Normal Interest Rates, 90/10 Portfolios, and Financial Independence
In Plus episode 410, we review the results from the recent TIPS auction that David participated in. We look at what determines interest rates and whether there is a normal level. We discuss Warren Buffett's recommended portfolio allocation for a trust he set up. Finally, we look at what financial independence means. Become a Member If you would like to listen to this episode of Money For the Rest of Us Plus, you can do so by becoming a Money For the Rest of Us Plus … [Read more...]
403 Plus: Is This Normal? Rate Increases, Negative Returns, and Owning Short-term versus Long-term Bonds
In Plus Episode 403, we consider whether the current market volatility is normal compared to earlier periods of rising interest rates. We review the latest leading economic indicators to see if recession risk is rising. Finally, we discuss what factors to consider if deciding about selling longer-term bonds and investing in short-term bonds. Become a Member If you would like to listen to this episode of Money For the Rest of Us Plus, you can do so by becoming a Money For the Rest … [Read more...]
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