The U.S has traditionally been a safe haven for investing, but that hasn't been the case in 2025. We explore three economic and narrative regimes and consider why we may be witnessing a shift after 12 years of U.S. outperformance. Topics covered include: What was the narrative and economic and financial performance from 1995–2001, 2002–2012, and 2012–2024. How the performance of the U.S. dollar impacted returns Why did economic forecasters predict the U.S. national debt would be … [Read more...]
472: Is the Economy as Bad as People Think?
Why most households are in better financial shape than prior to the pandemic, but remain frustrated at their lack of economic progress. Topics covered include: How consumer sentiment surveys are designed and their current findings. Reasons behind consumer frustration with increasing prices amidst declining inflation rates. The magnitude of the inflation shock and its underlying causes. The concept of reference prices and their significant role in shaping consumer … [Read more...]
380: How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial Success
Stories determine economic and financial outcomes, both our own and the world in aggregate. Here's how to craft and follow stories that will lead to better financial outcomes and greater happiness. Topics covered include: How financial narratives give us the confidence to take action in the face of uncertainty and potential lossHow the greater the stakes, the more we rely on anecdotal evidence rather than statisticsIs the world more stable and predictable or in a constant state of … [Read more...]
294: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events
How the stories we tell ourselves lead to economic change. What are current pandemic related narratives that are impacting financial markets and the economy. Topics covered include: Examples of mathematical models for epidemics.What are the risks when the global economy is opened again.Under what circumstances do individuals rely on anecdotal evidence rather than statistics.What are some propositions that underly how economic narratives spread.What are some examples of major narratives … [Read more...]
