This week on episode 514, we share a conversation between Howard Smith of Indus Capital and Greg Dowling of FEG Investment Advisors on why Japan could surprise investors over the next decade with strong investment returns. David introduces the episode by sharing his key takeaways from the discussion. FEG Investment Advisor is David's former institutional advisory firm, where he worked for 17 years, before founding Money for the Rest of Us. Greg Dowling is Chief Investment Officer of FEG, and … [Read more...]
505 Plus: Japanese Stocks, Investing at All-Time Highs, and Exchange Funds
In Plus episode 505, we review the investment thesis and performance of the WisdomTree Japan Small Cap Dividend ETF (DFJ). We look at U.S. stock market performance when investing at all-time highs. Finally, we explore how exchange funds work for diversifying out of low cost basis individual stock positions. … [Read more...]
489: Why Did Markets Sell Off? What Should You Do?
We examine three factors that contributed to this week's big stock market declines, analyze whether a recession is imminent, and examine David's recent portfolio changes. Topics covered include: The benefits of looking at market and economic trends monthly How bad was the recent U.S. employment report and what is the Sahm Rule What are leading economic indicators saying about recession risk Why the Federal Reserve will be lowering its policy rate, leading to lower cash … [Read more...]
468: Lessons from Japan’s 34 Years of Stock Market Underperformance
Japan's stock market recently exceeded the all-time high first set in December 1989. That's 34 years of zero price appreciation for the stock market. What drove this lackluster performance, will it continue, and what can we learn from it? Topics covered include: How big was Japan's stock bubble, and how much did it contribute to the stock market's underperformance over the past three decades How do Japan's demographic trends impact its economic challenges, and what are the … [Read more...]
441 Plus: Fixed Rate Debt, Japan and Yield Curve Control, Activist Short Sellers, Treasuries and Taxes
In Plus episode 441, we consider the economic impact of private-sector fixed-rate debt versus variable-rate debt. We discuss the Bank of Japan's apparent abandoning of yield curve control. When Treasury bondholders have to pay capital gains tax. Finally, we analyze activist short sellers. … [Read more...]
416: Your Nation’s National Debt: 5 Things You Need To Know
We analyze the worrisome national debt situation in the U.S., UK, and Japan and consider what will determine the likelihood of default Topics covered include: How big is the national debt in the U.S., UK, and Japan Why Japan and UK interest rates have increased When do federal government debts jump the most What two numbers are key to whether a level of national debt is sustainable What are five ways indebted countries have reduced the relative size of their debt Why … [Read more...]
380 Plus: Why the Japanese Yen Is Falling and a Follow Up on Simplify ETFs including PFIX
In Plus Episode 380, we explore what is causing the Japanese yen to decline relative to the dollar and how that has hurt unhedged investments in the Japanese stock market including Japanese ETFs in the model portfolio examples. We consider if and what investors could do. We also revisit the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX) and whether investors should take profits. Finally, we look at some of the challenges stock ETFs that offer downside protection through options strategies. … [Read more...]
235: What If Home Prices Always Declined
How to evaluate the purchase of a depreciating asset such as buying a house in Japan where prices have declined 23 out of the past 29 years. Photo by Manki Kim In this episode you’ll learn: There are no magical solutions to dealing with a housing bubble.Why Japanese home prices have declined for decades and why the houses are so cold in the winter.Why buy a house even if it will fall in price and how to go about doing so. Show Notes Designing Your Life: How To … [Read more...]
178: Japan and the Impact of A Shrinking Population
How a country's working age population growth impacts economic growth and stock returns. What Japan can do about its population decline. Photo by Alex Block In this episode you’ll learn: Why traveling can turn us upside down.Why an increase in the working age population leads to faster economic growth and higher stock returns.How countries can mitigate the negative economic impact of shrinking population.Why a Japanese debt default wouldn't destroy the nation's wealth but … [Read more...]
157: The Most Important Economic Question of Our Time
Why the likelihood of a future fiscal crisis sparked by the national debt depends on whether there is a limited or an unlimited supply of money. Is it possible the federal government's endless borrowing could crowd out the private sector and harm the economy? Photo by Cesar Marchan In this episode you’ll learn: How much is the U.S. national debt expected to increase. What is the financial concept of crowding out. How money is a zero-interest perpetual liability. How the … [Read more...]
