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You are here: Home / Archives for recessions

395 Plus: Is the U.S. in a Recession? and David’s Recent Portfolio Changes

July 30, 2022 by David Stein · Updated November 11, 2022

In Plus Episode 395, we analyze the U.S. Q2 GDP report, and other leading economic indicators to assess recession risk. Then we discuss what if anything investors should do. Next, we discuss the changes David made this past week to reduce risk and simplify his portfolio structure. … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: PFIX, portfolio trades, recession indicators, recessions

383: How to Be a Successful Contrarian Investor

April 20, 2022 by David Stein · Updated May 7, 2022

How contrarians combine value and momentum to take positions opposite what the consensus believes. What is the consensus view in today's financial markets and how are contrarians positioned. Topics covered include: Five attributes of successful investorsWhy does the consensus expect stagflationHow central banks have performed in previous tightening cyclesThree reasons central banks tightening results in a recessionWhen have interest rates peaked in prior tightening cyclesHow stocks … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: central banks, contrarian, pessimism, quantitative tightening, recessions

310: Why the Stock Market and Economy Are Rebounding So Quickly

August 19, 2020 by David Stein · Updated July 30, 2022

How the current global recession differs from the Great Financial Crisis and why the recession is probably over. Topics covered include: Why the current recession has no debt and banking crisisWhy lower-income workers are disproportionally harmed by the current recessionHow the federal government and central bank responses differed between the current recession and the 2008–09 recession.Do increased unemployment benefits disincentivize workersWhy the recession is probably over but it … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: central banks, COVID-19, pandemics, precautionary principle, recessions, vaccine

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