In this episode, we explore what it means to invest in a non-ergodic world—where time, not averages, determines outcomes. We unpack concepts like volatility drag, ensemble vs. time averages, and the implications for portfolio strategy, while also reflecting on how AI and zero-click search are reshaping business and investor behavior. Topics covered include: Show Notes Wayback Machine: jdstein.com Probabilities and Payoffs: The Practicalities and Psychology of Expected Value … [Read more...]
460: Should You Be Invested 100% in Stocks Before and During Retirement? A Recent Study Says Yes.
The pros and cons of investing your retirement assets 100% in equity, including half in international stocks. Why the 4% spending rule is too aggressive. Topics covered include: Show Notes Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice by Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg, and Michael S. O'Doherty—SSRN The Safe Withdrawal Rate: Evidence from a Broad Sample of Developed Markets by Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg, Michael S. O'Doherty, and … [Read more...]
458: Dissecting Stock Returns: Financial Engineering or Genuine Growth?
Do the impressive returns in public and private markets stem from strategic financial engineering or reflect actual economic growth? Topics covered include: Show Notes US CEOs start to contemplate Trump, round 2 by Rana Foroohar—The Financial Times End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns by Michael Smolyansky—The Federal Reserve 10-Year Stock Market Returns—Crestmont Research Stock Average—Crestmont Research Stock EPS … [Read more...]
455: Easier Investing, Richer Life: TIPS Ladders to Annuities
What are the pros and cons of partially funding retirement expenses with an inflation-indexed bond ladder versus an immediate annuity? There is a big downside to TIPS ladders that many investors don't realize. Topics covered include: Show Notes Effortless: Make It Easier to Do What Matters Most by Greg McKeown Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less by Greg McKeown Skin in the Game by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Worry-Free Investing: A Safe Approach to Achieving Your … [Read more...]
451: How Much Should You Invest in Stocks? The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market
Our allocation to risky assets should vary based on the expected return, volatility, risk aversion, and how much we can earn risk-free. That means we should be taking less risk right now. Listen to learn why. Topics covered include: Show Notes How to avoid a common investment mistake - Buttonwood - The Economist The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions by Victor Haghani and James White Money For the Rest of Us List of Most Influential … [Read more...]
Why You Should Rebalance Your Portfolio
What you need to know about rebalancing methods, timing, and the impacts of volatility ARTICLE TABLE OF CONTENTS (Skip to Section) Positive Skewness and Faulty EmotionsDon’t Let High Volatility Drag You DownWhen Rebalancing Becomes ImbalancedTiming Isn’t Everything Rebalance Your Portfolio the Way That’s Best for YouPodcast Episode 356: How, When, and Why Should You Rebalance Your Investment Portfolio by EMILY BOULTER & | Updated You know that your portfolio should be … [Read more...]
