What happens when the money supply grows too slowly or too quickly? From gold-standard deflation to QE-driven inflation and inequality, we trace the lessons of monetary history, and what we can do today to protect ourselves in an age of infinite money. Topics covered include: How is the money supply measured, and why is it a subjective exercise What is an example of a negative money shock Why an optimal monetary policy would lead to deflation, and why that is a good … [Read more...]
538 Plus: More on the Fed, Inflation and the Money Supply, and Analyzing Cryptocurrency Treasury Companies
In Plus episode 538, we explore various inflation measures, what causes inflation, and the relationship between the money supply and inflation, as we consider whether the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will cut the Fed's policy rate next week. We also analyze the investment case, or lack thereof, of Bitcoin and Ethereum Treasury companies, publicly traded firms that hoard cryptocurrency. … [Read more...]
537: Why Central Banking Is So Hard and Why Fed Independence Matters
Central bankers set policy with incomplete information, unobservable targets, and constant trade-offs between growth, inflation, and employment. In this episode, we delve into how the fight for Federal Reserve independence could impact markets, interest rates, and your financial future. Topics covered include: What Federal Reserve Chair Powell said at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium What is the Federal Reserve's mission statement Why is it normal for U.S. presidents to … [Read more...]
484 Plus: ETF Family Size and a Review of QE’s Impact on Inflation and Asset Prices
In Plus episode 484, we answer a member's question on whether it is better to invest in larger ETFs and with larger ETF families. We also review quantitative easing and quantitative tightening. We look at how the per capita increase in the money supply due to QE led to a big jump in inflation and asset prices, including for houses and stocks. We also look at the per capita increase in the national debt. … [Read more...]
475: Inflation’s Illusion: Debunking the Normalcy of Currency Debasement
It is not normal to want prices to rise and currencies to lose their purchasing power. We look at the advantages of stable currencies and prices. Topics covered include: What's more normal, an inflationary or deflationary mindset? Why it is more normal for prices to fall due to productivity increases How central banks seek to overcome productivity-induced deflation by increasing the money supply How inflation and ongoing currency debasement encourage debt, the … [Read more...]
472: Is the Economy as Bad as People Think?
Why most households are in better financial shape than prior to the pandemic, but remain frustrated at their lack of economic progress. Topics covered include: How consumer sentiment surveys are designed and their current findings. Reasons behind consumer frustration with increasing prices amidst declining inflation rates. The magnitude of the inflation shock and its underlying causes. The concept of reference prices and their significant role in shaping consumer … [Read more...]
456 Plus: 4% Rule, TFLO, Personal Inflation Rates, Emerging Latin America, and GIM
In Plus episode 456, we explore how to apply retirement spending rules when real estate properties will be sold during retirement. We consider the risks of investing in the iShares Floating Rate Treasury ETF (TFLO). We answer a question about the hoopla surrounding Treasury Inflation Protection Securities. Why has David not purchased a dedicated Latin America Emerging Markets Stock ETF. Update on the Templeton Global Income Fund (GIM). … [Read more...]
429 Plus: Stocks and Inflation, Emerging Markets Bonds
In Plus episode 429, we consider how stocks perform during periods of high inflation by looking at the example of Argentina and a recent academic study on the topic. … [Read more...]
429: Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn’t?
With a total U.S. inflation rate of 14% in the past two years, we review how various inflation hedges performed over the past twenty-four months. Topics covered include: What were investors' and the Federal Reserve's inflation expectations two years ago What led to the big inflation increase Why was the Federal Reserve forced to raise its policy rate by almost 5% in a year How successful were inflation-index bonds, stocks, commodities, and real estate in beating inflation … [Read more...]
403: The Pandemic Might Be “Over,” but Not Its Repercussions
How risk perceptions and actions have changed over several years of the pandemic. How the pandemic's impacts continue to affect politics, the economy, financial markets, how we invest, and our personal lives. Topics covered include: Is the pandemic really over? Based on what criteriaWhat percentage of people continue to isolate at homeHow behaviors such as eating out and visiting friends have changed throughout the pandemic.How work has changed with the pandemicHas pandemic stimulus … [Read more...]
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