Central bankers set policy with incomplete information, unobservable targets, and constant trade-offs between growth, inflation, and employment. In this episode, we delve into how the fight for Federal Reserve independence could impact markets, interest rates, and your financial future. Topics covered include: What Federal Reserve Chair Powell said at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium What is the Federal Reserve's mission statement Why is it normal for U.S. presidents to … [Read more...]
501 Plus: Why Interest Rates Are Rising, Maximum Drawdowns, and Buffer ETF Underperformance
In Plus episode 501, we review why Federal Reserve Chair Powell said the Fed isn't in a hurry to lower its policy rate. We revisit why interest rates are increasing. David shares the expected return, ranges, and maximum drawdown of his portfolio. We analyze why buffer ETFs can lag the underlying reference assets when the stock market is appreciating. … [Read more...]
495: The Federal Reserve Cut Rates. What Should We Do Now?
What does the Federal Reserve's policy rate cut mean for our portfolios? Will interest rates keep falling? What changes should we make? Topics covered include: What determines interest rates, and where are those drivers currently What is the best estimate of bond returns How duration works and why it changes What are some current fixed income investment options Show Notes Asset Camp FedWatch—CME Group Summary of Economic Projections—US Federal … [Read more...]
464: More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall
Professional investors and other market participants are lousy at forecasting interest rates. Here are three more options to lock in higher yields today. Topics covered include: The risk of buying long-term bonds and ETFs to benefit from falling yields How volatility drag has impacted a long-term bond ETF like TLT Why interest rates won't go up just because the government issues more bonds How CDs, fixed annuities, and zero-coupon bonds work We compare and contrast the … [Read more...]
453: The Price of Money – 700 Years of Falling, Can Interest Rates Keep Rising?
Interest rates have been sliding for seven centuries. Dive into the historical forces driving this trend and examine whether the recent interest rate spike is just a blip on the radar. Topics covered include: How the supply of savings and the demand to borrow impact interest rates Why have interest rates been falling for over 700 years, and what might have changed recently to propel rates higher How lower rates have helped households increase their net worth and reduce their … [Read more...]
450: How Higher Interest Rates Alter Our Financial Blueprint
We explore six impacts of higher interest rates on housing, capital projects, stock buybacks, excess returns for stocks, bonds, and other asset classes, and individual opportunity costs. Topics covered include: Where current interest rates stand Central banker predictions for how long cash yields will stay this high Why housing is the least affordable since the early 1980s Why new apartment building construction has collapsed What has been the excess return for stocks, … [Read more...]
448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium
Why you might want to lock in higher yields now, given real interest rates are the highest they have been in 15 years. Topics covered include: What was covered this year at the Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium What are the primary policy actions central banks take, and how do they influence interest rates What is the neutral real rate of interest, and why is it important Why new ideas are central to an increasing standard of living What would drive interest rates … [Read more...]
412: Where to Invest Your Cash Savings for Higher Yields
What are the best options for safely investing cash. Topics covered include: High-yield savings accounts Certificates of Deposits Government Bonds Money Market Mutual Funds When should you invest in long-term bonds Why some savings apps try to look like banks but they are not What happens when central banks lose money Where not to deposit cash for safety Show Notes a16z-backed Tellus wants to offer consumers a much better savings rate. Here’s how. by … [Read more...]
410 Plus: TIPS Auction Results, Normal Interest Rates, 90/10 Portfolios, and Financial Independence
In Plus episode 410, we review the results from the recent TIPS auction that David participated in. We look at what determines interest rates and whether there is a normal level. We discuss Warren Buffett's recommended portfolio allocation for a trust he set up. Finally, we look at what financial independence means. … [Read more...]
403 Plus: Is This Normal? Rate Increases, Negative Returns, and Owning Short-term versus Long-term Bonds
In Plus Episode 403, we consider whether the current market volatility is normal compared to earlier periods of rising interest rates. We review the latest leading economic indicators to see if recession risk is rising. Finally, we discuss what factors to consider if deciding about selling longer-term bonds and investing in short-term bonds. … [Read more...]
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