What does the Federal Reserve's policy rate cut mean for our portfolios? Will interest rates keep falling? What changes should we make? Topics covered include: What determines interest rates, and where are those drivers currently What is the best estimate of bond returns How duration works and why it changes What are some current fixed income investment options Show Notes Asset Camp FedWatch—CME Group Summary of Economic Projections—US Federal … [Read more...]
463: How to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall
With cash yields expected to fall, here's how you can keep your portfolio income elevated by purchasing longer-term individual bonds and bullet ETFs Topics covered include: How future short-term interest rates, inflation expectations, and term premiums impact long-term interest rates How each of those rate drivers contributed to the close to 1% drop in interest rates in the past three months How yield to maturity is our guide to locking in a fixed return using individual bonds … [Read more...]
448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium
Why you might want to lock in higher yields now, given real interest rates are the highest they have been in 15 years. Topics covered include: What was covered this year at the Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium What are the primary policy actions central banks take, and how do they influence interest rates What is the neutral real rate of interest, and why is it important Why new ideas are central to an increasing standard of living What would drive interest rates … [Read more...]
447 Plus: The Tax Impact of Active Stock Funds, Municipal Bonds, and Balancing Cash and Longer-term Bonds
In Plus episode 447, we discuss how to calculate the performance impact of capital gains tax distributions for an active stock mutual fund. We answer a member's question on what to do with a portfolio of individual municipal bonds selected by their previous investment advisor. Finally, we explore the decision between holding high-yielding cash or locking in higher coupon rates on longer-term bonds. … [Read more...]
445 Plus: More on Estimating Bond Fund Returns and Spin-Off Investing
In Plus episode 445, we reference an academic study as we try to better explain why the starting yield to maturity is a good estimate of a bond fund's or ETF's annualized return if the holding period is long enough. We also explore spin-off investing in which a parent company divests a division or subsidiary. We review how the parent and child companies perform. … [Read more...]
433 Plus: Wealth Trackers Review, How Many Bond Funds, Inflation and the Trillion Dollar Coin
In Plus episode 433, we compare Kubera to Exirio. We discuss bond portfolio structure and compare the DoubleLine Core Fixed Income Fund to the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund. Finally, we discuss how federal budget deficits, quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, and minting a trillion coin contribute to wealth, liquidity, and inflation. … [Read more...]
432 Plus: Where To Invest In Bonds Now and a Cockroach Role-Based Portfolio
In Plus episode 432, we compare investing in CDs, municipal bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, U.S. Treasuries, or TIPS in the current investment environment. We also analyze a version of a role-based permanent portfolio that incorporates long volatility and trend-following strategies. … [Read more...]
418: Bond Investing Masterclass
What you need to know to confidently invest in bonds. Topics covered include: Key components of bond investing include face value, coupon rates, yield-to-maturity, duration, and convexity How to decide between owning longer-term or short-term bonds How to decide whether to own individual bonds or bond funds and ETFs When to use active bond management versus bond indexing How bullet bond ETFs work and when to use them How to know when to invest in municipal bonds and … [Read more...]
404 Plus: More on Bonds, Interest Rates, Monetary Velocity, and Inflation
In Plus Episode 404, we discuss paying down a mortgage early now that interest rates are higher. We answer a member's questions on how to invest college savings to be used in seven years or less. We revisit selling intermediate-term bond funds and ETFs. We revisit David's decision to buy and sell PFIX. Finally, we look at what monetary velocity is, why it is increasing and does that suggest inflation will stay high for longer. … [Read more...]
378 Plus: A Frustrating Time To Invest and Did BulletShares Underperform?
In Plus Episode 378, we discuss the fear, uncertainty, and frustration we can feel investing in the current environment. We also look at how to estimate the performance of BulletShare ETFs, which are ETFs that hold bonds and have fixed maturities. We consider why a member's BulletShare ETF fell well short of his expectations. … [Read more...]
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