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You are here: Home / Archives for yield curve

411 & 412 Plus: Floating Rate Treasuries, TFLO, Real Yield Curves, Trust, and GBTC

December 3, 2022 by David Stein · Updated April 19, 2023

In this combined Plus episode 411 and 412, we explore how U.S. Treasury Floating Rate Notes work, and why they are cash equivalents. We discuss the iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF (TFLO) that invests in U.S. Treasury Floating Rate notes. We compare nominal and real inverted yield curves. We discuss how trust ebbs and flows. Finally, we explore why trust has lessened in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: floating rate bonds, floating rate Treasuries, GBTC, inverted yield curve, real yield curve, TFLO, yield curve

412: Where to Invest Your Cash Savings for Higher Yields

December 1, 2022 by David Stein · Updated January 9, 2023

What are the best options for safely investing cash. Topics covered include: High-yield savings accounts Certificates of Deposits Government Bonds Money Market Mutual Funds When should you invest in long-term bonds Why some savings apps try to look like banks but they are not What happens when central banks lose money Where not to deposit cash for safety Show Notes a16z-backed Tellus wants to offer consumers a much better savings rate. Here’s how. by … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: cash, cash equivalents, interest rates, inverted yield curve, money market funds, term premium, yield curve

379 Plus: Recent Portfolio Trades, Inverted Yield Curves, and Maintaining a Homestead

March 26, 2022 by David Stein · Updated April 27, 2022

This week on Plus Episode 379, David discusses recent changes to his portfolio including the addition of the Barings Corporate Investors Fund (MCI) and an increased allocation to the Simplify Volatility Premium ETF (SVOL). We also explore inverted yield curves and whether the current interest rate environment in the U.S. suggests a recession is imminent. Finally, we discuss whether it is important to keep a homestead in order to establish a sense of connectedness with adult children. … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: homestead, inverted yield curve, MCI, SVOL, yield curve

246: What Central Banks Don’t Know Should Concern You

March 27, 2019 by David Stein · Updated September 25, 2024

Why an inverted yield curve is disconcerting given such low interest rates. Why those low rates could lead to radical central bank policies during the next recession. In this episode you’ll learn: What is an inverted yield curve and does it signal a recession is coming.What determines interest rates.What is the neutral equilibrium real rate of interest and why it matters.Why is the Federal Reserve considering make up strategies that allow inflation to rise up its 2% target and what … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: central banks, Federal Funds rate, interest rates, inverted yield curve, monetary policy, neutral rate, recession indicators, stock market returns, yield curve

245 Plus: March 2019 Mid Month Update, Inverted Yield Curve, Puts on ETFs, and a Private Lending Limited Partnership

March 23, 2019 by David Stein · Updated June 11, 2024

In Plus episode 245 for the week of March 23, 2019, we look at investment conditions as of mid-March including flash PMI reports. We revisit the accuracy of inverted yield curves in predicting recessions, and what is different this time now that the yield curve has inverted. We look at why long term interest rates could increase during the next recession. David discusses his recent trade to buy puts on two non-investment grade fixed income ETFs. Finally, we look at a limited partnership … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: budget deficit, inverted yield curve, private credit, private lending, put options, yield curve

211 Plus: July Portfolio Review, REITs and Inverted Yield Curves

July 7, 2018 by David Stein · Updated May 12, 2021

This week July 7, 2018, we review a change to the model portfolios to replace the iShares Currency Hedged MSCI All Country World ETF (HACW), which is closing. We review recent changes David made to his portfolio. Finally, we answer member questions regarding inverted yield curves, increasing REIT exposure and investing more aggressively than the Aggressive Model portfolio. … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: equity REITs, inverted yield curve, model portfolio changes, model portfolios, REITs, yield curve

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