What we can monitor and do now in preparation for a 2030s depression, which may or may not arrive. Topics covered include: Why ITR Economics has been predicting a 2030s depression for over a decade. What are the early warning signs we can monitor for increasing risk of economic and financial turmoil What are U.S. and global population predictions by the Congressional Budget Office and the United Nations What is the status of Social Security and what would it take to make … [Read more...]
479: National Debt Master Class Finale – What To Do
In part three of our national debt masterclass, we share a simple debt dynamics formula we can monitor to help guide our investment choices. Topics covered include: How much has the national debt grown over the past fifties years, and what are the underlying drivers How the budget deficit, interest rates, and economic growth determine the level and growth in the national debt Under what circumstances will the U.S. default on its debt How should we invest to protect ourselves … [Read more...]
478: National Debt Master Class Part 2/3
In part two of this series, we explore how households, businesses, and banks can opt out of the national debt scheme. We also examine how central banks and governments monetize debt with quantitative easing. Show Notes Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet: Federal Reserve liabilities—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System As of and for the Years Ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 and Independent Auditors’ Report—The United States Federal Reserve … [Read more...]
National Debt Master Class Part 1/3
In part one of this three-part series, we consider why a country that issues debt in its own currency can't default unless it chooses to. We also explore how central banks can control interest rates on the national debt and whether it is possible for government borrowing to crowd out the private sector. Show Notes Money In The Modern Economy: An Introduction—Bank of England – Q1 2014 Money Creation In The Modern Economy—Bank of England – Q1 2014 Congressional Budget Office … [Read more...]
449: The House of Cards: Evaluating Economic and Financial Warning Signs
What are the economic and financial system early warning signs that we should heed rather than get caught up in fearmongering? When should we start to worry about ballooning budget deficits, the national debt, a currency collapse, or the stock market? Topics covered include: Signals to monitor to see if things are falling apart How much government debt is too much and why interest rates are key Why central banks don't control the stock market Why the dollar remains dominant, … [Read more...]
443 Plus: U.S. Debt Downgrade, Vanguard Cash Plus Account, and Crowdstreet Fraud
In Plus episode 443, we consider the repercussions of Fitch downgrading U.S. government debt and how to monitor the debt situation. We analyze Vanguard's new cash options. Finally, we review the recent fraud accusations for one of the real estate investments hosted on the Crowdstreet real estate platform. … [Read more...]
433: What Happens If The U.S. Defaults On Its Debt? Here’s Why It Won’t
What are the grave consequences if the U.S. debt ceiling isn't increased and the government defaults? What would the Federal Reserve and the Executive Branch do to prevent default if Congress doesn't act? Topics covered include: What are the potential impacts of a U.S. default on the stock and bond markets, and the overall economy What causes the U.S. to have a perennial debt ceiling crisis Why it is uncertain when the U.S. government would run out of money to meet its … [Read more...]
418 Plus: Mortgage REIT Preferred Stock, Debt Ceiling Standoff, and Fallen Angel Bonds
In Plus episode 418, we review the current status of mortgage REITs and analyze the mortgage REIT preferred stock David recently purchased. We consider whether investors should move assets out of cash until the debt ceiling standoff is resolved. We consider options the U.S. Treasury has to meet its obligations including minting a trillion-dollar coin. Finally, we look at two ETFs that invest in bonds that have recently been downgraded to non-investment grade from investment grade. … [Read more...]
416: Your Nation’s National Debt: 5 Things You Need To Know
We analyze the worrisome national debt situation in the U.S., UK, and Japan and consider what will determine the likelihood of default Topics covered include: How big is the national debt in the U.S., UK, and Japan Why Japan and UK interest rates have increased When do federal government debts jump the most What two numbers are key to whether a level of national debt is sustainable What are five ways indebted countries have reduced the relative size of their debt Why … [Read more...]
403: The Pandemic Might Be “Over,” but Not Its Repercussions
How risk perceptions and actions have changed over several years of the pandemic. How the pandemic's impacts continue to affect politics, the economy, financial markets, how we invest, and our personal lives. Topics covered include: Is the pandemic really over? Based on what criteriaWhat percentage of people continue to isolate at homeHow behaviors such as eating out and visiting friends have changed throughout the pandemic.How work has changed with the pandemicHas pandemic stimulus … [Read more...]
