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You are here: Home / Archives for national debt

525: No More AAA – What the U.S. Debt Downgrade Means for Investors

May 21, 2025 by Camden Stein · Updated May 21, 2025

With longer-term U.S. interest rates rising and no plan to reduce the budget deficit, is a U.S. national debt crisis imminent? Topics covered include: Why S&P, Fitch, and now Moody's stripped the U.S. of its pristine AAA debt rating How the U.S. national debt dynamics compare to Greece, Italy, and Japan What are four things investors should monitor for signs that the national debt crisis is worsening or spiraling out of control Show Notes Moody's Ratings … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: budget deficit, debt ceiling, debt default, government spending, national debt

487: Are We Heading for a 2030s Depression? Global Economic and Population Shifts

July 24, 2024 by David Stein · Updated September 3, 2024

What we can monitor and do now in preparation for a 2030s depression, which may or may not arrive. Topics covered include: Why ITR Economics has been predicting a 2030s depression for over a decade. What are the early warning signs we can monitor for increasing risk of economic and financial turmoil What are U.S. and global population predictions by the Congressional Budget Office and the United Nations What is the status of Social Security and what would it take to make it … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: demographics, depression, national debt, population, prediction

479: National Debt Master Class Finale – What To Do

May 22, 2024 by David Stein · Updated June 1, 2024

In part three of our national debt masterclass, we share a simple debt dynamics formula we can monitor to help guide our investment choices. Topics covered include: How much has the national debt grown over the past fifties years, and what are the underlying drivers How the budget deficit, interest rates, and economic growth determine the level and growth in the national debt Under what circumstances will the U.S. default on its debt How should we invest to protect ourselves … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: national debt

478: National Debt Master Class Part 2/3

May 17, 2024 by David Stein · Updated May 28, 2024

In part two of this series, we explore how households, businesses, and banks can opt out of the national debt scheme. We also examine how central banks and governments monetize debt with quantitative easing. Show Notes Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet: Federal Reserve liabilities—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System As of and for the Years Ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 and Independent Auditors’ Report—The United States Federal Reserve … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: national debt

National Debt Master Class Part 1/3

May 8, 2024 by David Stein · Updated May 22, 2024

In part one of this three-part series, we consider why a country that issues debt in its own currency can't default unless it chooses to. We also explore how central banks can control interest rates on the national debt and whether it is possible for government borrowing to crowd out the private sector. Show Notes Money In The Modern Economy: An Introduction—Bank of England – Q1 2014 Money Creation In The Modern Economy—Bank of England – Q1 2014 Congressional Budget Office … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: national debt

449: The House of Cards: Evaluating Economic and Financial Warning Signs

September 27, 2023 by David Stein · Updated October 30, 2023

What are the economic and financial system early warning signs that we should heed rather than get caught up in fearmongering? When should we start to worry about ballooning budget deficits, the national debt, a currency collapse, or the stock market? Topics covered include: Signals to monitor to see if things are falling apart How much government debt is too much and why interest rates are key Why central banks don't control the stock market Why the dollar remains dominant, … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: central banks, dollar collapse, fear, national debt, quantitative easing

443 Plus: U.S. Debt Downgrade, Vanguard Cash Plus Account, and Crowdstreet Fraud

August 12, 2023 by David Stein · Updated August 31, 2023

In Plus episode 443, we consider the repercussions of Fitch downgrading U.S. government debt and how to monitor the debt situation. We analyze Vanguard's new cash options. Finally, we review the recent fraud accusations for one of the real estate investments hosted on the Crowdstreet real estate platform. … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Money Plus Tagged With: cash, CrowdStreet, debt default, Fundrise, national debt, real estate, Vanguard

433: What Happens If The U.S. Defaults On Its Debt? Here’s Why It Won’t

May 17, 2023 by Camden Stein · Updated June 6, 2023

What are the grave consequences if the U.S. debt ceiling isn't increased and the government defaults? What would the Federal Reserve and the Executive Branch do to prevent default if Congress doesn't act? Topics covered include: What are the potential impacts of a U.S. default on the stock and bond markets, and the overall economy What causes the U.S. to have a perennial debt ceiling crisis Why it is uncertain when the U.S. government would run out of money to meet its … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: budget deficit, debt ceiling, Federal Reserve, national debt, trillion dollar coin

418 Plus: Mortgage REIT Preferred Stock, Debt Ceiling Standoff, and Fallen Angel Bonds

January 28, 2023 by David Stein · Updated February 20, 2023

In Plus episode 418, we review the current status of mortgage REITs and analyze the mortgage REIT preferred stock David recently purchased. We consider whether investors should move assets out of cash until the debt ceiling standoff is resolved. We consider options the U.S. Treasury has to meet its obligations including minting a trillion-dollar coin. Finally, we look at two ETFs that invest in bonds that have recently been downgraded to non-investment grade from investment grade. … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Money Plus Tagged With: debt ceiling, fallen angels, high yield bonds, mortgage REITs, national debt, non-investment grade bonds, preferred stocks, REIT preferreds

416: Your Nation’s National Debt: 5 Things You Need To Know

January 11, 2023 by David Stein · Updated May 17, 2023

We analyze the worrisome national debt situation in the U.S., UK, and Japan and consider what will determine the likelihood of default Topics covered include: How big is the national debt in the U.S., UK, and Japan Why Japan and UK interest rates have increased When do federal government debts jump the most What two numbers are key to whether a level of national debt is sustainable What are five ways indebted countries have reduced the relative size of their debt Why … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: debt ceiling, financial repression, Japan, national debt, quantitative easing, United Kingdom

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