How trade deficits are making the U.S. poorer, while in the past they have made the U.S. wealthier. Topics covered include: Two ways countries can increase their competitiveness How savings always equals investment Why excess savings flows to the U.S. leading to a drop in U.S. domestic savings Why the U.S. current trade situation could lead to a debt crisis Show Notes Why U.S. Debt Must Continue to Rise by Michael Pettis—Carnegie Endowment Could Trump devalue … [Read more...]
495 Plus: China’s Stock Boom, U.S. Recession Risk, and Fractional Shares
In Plus episode 495, we explore why the Chinese stock market has gained 15% this month. We review the latest leading economic indicators to assess U.S. and global recession risk. Finally, we touch on fractional share ownership. … [Read more...]
445: From Boom to Bust—Why China’s Stocks Lagged Behind Its Economy & Where to Invest Next
Explore the surprising disconnect between China's booming economy and its underperforming stock market, and discover where the next investment opportunities lie. Topics covered include: How badly has China's stock market performed except for one remarkable decade What are the economic and governance factors that contributed to the underperformance Why it's too soon to write off China despite the structural headwinds What are the factors that contribute to economic growth and … [Read more...]
411: Is Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing Still Worth It? – With Asha Mehta
Camden and David converse with Asha Mehta, Managing Partner & CIO at Global Delta Capital about the bullish case for emerging and frontier markets stocks as well as the risks. Topics covered include: How to go about investing in emerging markets Should you invest in China Where are the most promising emerging and frontier markets Why aggregate emerging markets earnings have been lackluster How to balance quantitative analysis with subjective reasoning Show … [Read more...]
394: How to Get Better at Risk Taking
Five ways we can better take and manage risk. Topics covered include: How likely is it that China will invade Taiwan and the stock market will fall 80%Why experts tend to be humble and don't make specific predictionsWhat is the difference between risk and uncertainty, and between loss capacity and loss aversionWhat factors impact our degree of loss aversion and loss toleranceWhy the economy needs more risk takers rather than rentiers Show Notes Investor Risk Profiling: An … [Read more...]
358: Should You Stop Investing in China?
A regulatory crackdown and ideological campaign by the Chinese government has upended the Chinese stock market, which comprises close to 40% of emerging market indices. We evaluate what is going on and what investors should do. Topics covered include: How has the Chinese stock market performed in 2021 Why has Cathie Wood and Ark Invest dramatically cut their Chinese stock exposure What are examples of regulatory changes in China Why the stocks Chinese online tutoring … [Read more...]
353 Plus: China, VIEs and Stock Performance Over the Past Decade
In Plus Episode 353, we review variable interest entities, the corporate structure used by some of the largest publicly traded technology companies operating in China. We review the risks of this structure, especially in light of recent regulatory actions taken by the Chinese government against publicly traded tutoring companies. We compare the risks of investing in China and other emerging markets with the risks of investing in an expensive U.S. stock market. … [Read more...]
344: Why Should You Care About Shadow Banking?
Half of the global financial system's assets belong to shadow banks. You have probably already used one. What are shadow banks and what to be wary of when using them. Topics covered include: What are the roles of shadow banks What are examples of shadow banks How two shadow banks, Greensill Capital and Archegos Capital Management, contributed to billions of dollars in losses How China's massive use of shadow banks differs from the rest of the world How individuals … [Read more...]
337: Why in the World Would You Own Bonds?
With interest rates rising does it still make sense to own bonds? Yes. This episode explores the role of bonds including why they are more effective at hedging stock losses than protective put options. Topics covered include: David's business and investment philosophy How bond funds have performed in 2021 Three disparate views on the direction of interest rates from Capital Economics, Ray Dalio, and Hoisington Investment Management Company How to invest in China … [Read more...]
328: Are You Underweight Chinese Stocks? Pros and Cons of Investing in China
Most global stock ETFs, funds and indices have only about 5% invested in China even though China has the second-largest economy in the world. What are the pros and cons of increasing your allocation to Chinese stocks? Topics covered include: Why has China's economy rebounded faster than other countriesWhat are Chinese A-share stocksHow large are China's economy and stock marketWhat are four threats that could derail the performance of Chinese stocksHow individuals can invest in China's … [Read more...]
