How risk perceptions and actions have changed over several years of the pandemic. How the pandemic's impacts continue to affect politics, the economy, financial markets, how we invest, and our personal lives. Topics covered include: Is the pandemic really over? Based on what criteriaWhat percentage of people continue to isolate at homeHow behaviors such as eating out and visiting friends have changed throughout the pandemic.How work has changed with the pandemicHas pandemic stimulus … [Read more...]
367 Plus: December 2021 Investment Conditions Review
In Plus Episode 367, we review the potential impact of the Omicron Covid Variant on the global economy and financial markets. We review current valuations, economic trends, and market internals heading into year-end. … [Read more...]
333: How The Covid Shock Nearly Destroyed The Financial System
Why the Federal Reserve had to step in again to stop runs on money market mutual funds and keep the financial system from imploding. Topics covered include: What are the differences between shocks and vulnerabilities What are the four main vulnerabilities the Federal Reserve monitors How deleveraging and demands for liquidity lead to market stresses What are the types of money market funds and how were they impacted by the Covid 19 shock How was Treasury bond trading … [Read more...]
324: 2020—The Year We Will Never Forget
A review of how the pandemic, financial markets, and government policy evolved in 2020 to make for an unforgettable year. Topics covered include: Why the Covid-19 pandemic ranks as the second worst in modern historyWhat is the difference between risk and uncertainty and how our investing should be different when dealing with uncertaintyWhat portfolio changes did David make in 2020 and how should he have invested if he had perfect foresightWhy speculative assets such as gold and … [Read more...]
322 Plus: Mid Month Update, Calculating Returns and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
In Plus episode 322, we review market returns, market internals and the distribution dynamics for the new Covid-19 vaccines. We discuss whether retirees should focus on income or total return and provide a resource for calculating returns. Finally, we analyze the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust as a more convenient way to invest in Bitcoin, but at a significant premium. … [Read more...]
310: Why the Stock Market and Economy Are Rebounding So Quickly
How the current global recession differs from the Great Financial Crisis and why the recession is probably over. Topics covered include: Why the current recession has no debt and banking crisisWhy lower-income workers are disproportionally harmed by the current recessionHow the federal government and central bank responses differed between the current recession and the 2008–09 recession.Do increased unemployment benefits disincentivize workersWhy the recession is probably over but it … [Read more...]
294: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events
How the stories we tell ourselves lead to economic change. What are current pandemic related narratives that are impacting financial markets and the economy. Topics covered include: Examples of mathematical models for epidemics.What are the risks when the global economy is opened again.Under what circumstances do individuals rely on anecdotal evidence rather than statistics.What are some propositions that underly how economic narratives spread.What are some examples of major narratives … [Read more...]
291: How To Survive the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Shutdown
How to avoid ruin and help others avoid ruin as the economy shuts down to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Topics covered include: What is the precautionary principle and how can it help us make important decisions with regards to the coronavirus pandemic.How many people could be infected with COVID-19 in the next 30 to 60 days at the current daily growth rate.Why investment managers are selling assets to reduce their market exposure.Should individual investors be increasing or … [Read more...]
289: Market Timing Versus Time in the Market
Why market timing and time in the market are both practiced by most investors. Given the coronavirus pandemic threat why it is okay to reduce stock exposure. Topics covered include: What would a stock portfolio return that misses the best or worst days and how likely is that.How do rolling 30-year stock returns differ depending on the starting point.Why are stocks likely to outperform bonds over the next 30 years.What is sequence of return risk.What is market timing.Why long-term … [Read more...]
288 Plus: Pandemic Market Conditions Update, Why Value Has Underperformed, and YieldStreet Prism Fund
In Plus episode 288 for the week of February 29, 2020, we review the week's market carnage, what is driving it, and what to look for to decide to reduce or increase exposure to stocks. We look at what has caused the underperformance of the iShares Edge MSCI International Value ETF (IVLU) and other value strategies and why the ETF remains in the model portfolios. Finally, we analyze the YieldStreet Prism Fund to see if it is worth investing in. … [Read more...]
