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You are here: Home / Archives for central banks

489: Why Did Markets Sell Off? What Should You Do?

August 7, 2024 by David Stein · Updated August 14, 2024

We examine three factors that contributed to this week's big stock market declines, analyze whether a recession is imminent, and examine David's recent portfolio changes. Topics covered include: The benefits of looking at market and economic trends monthly How bad was the recent U.S. employment report and what is the Sahm Rule What are leading economic indicators saying about recession risk Why the Federal Reserve will be lowering its policy rate, leading to lower cash … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: central banks, Japan, market crash, selloff, stock market losses, volatility

449: The House of Cards: Evaluating Economic and Financial Warning Signs

September 27, 2023 by David Stein · Updated October 30, 2023

What are the economic and financial system early warning signs that we should heed rather than get caught up in fearmongering? When should we start to worry about ballooning budget deficits, the national debt, a currency collapse, or the stock market? Topics covered include: Signals to monitor to see if things are falling apart How much government debt is too much and why interest rates are key Why central banks don't control the stock market Why the dollar remains dominant, … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: central banks, dollar collapse, fear, national debt, quantitative easing

448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium

September 20, 2023 by David Stein · Updated September 25, 2024

Why you might want to lock in higher yields now, given real interest rates are the highest they have been in 15 years. Topics covered include: What was covered this year at the Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium What are the primary policy actions central banks take, and how do they influence interest rates What is the neutral real rate of interest, and why is it important Why new ideas are central to an increasing standard of living What would drive interest rates … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: bonds, central banks, interest rates, monetary policy, neutral rate, quantitative easing

404: Why Is the U.S. Dollar So Strong? Will It Continue?

September 28, 2022 by David Stein · Updated June 27, 2024

What has caused the U.S. dollar's currency exchange rate to be the strongest in twenty years? How a strong dollar leads to slower global economic growth and falling asset prices. Topics covered include: Why a strong dollar is a no-win situation for the rest of the world Why have inflation and interest rates increased Why recession risks are rising as central banks combat inflation Why asset prices fall when interest rates rise What would cause the U.S. dollar to weaken … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: central banks, currencies, currency risk, dollar collapse, dollar peg, dollar shortage, Eurodollars, offshore dollars, reserve currency, U.S. dollar

388: Will Quantitative Tightening Lead To Even Greater Financial Losses?

May 25, 2022 by David Stein · Updated June 15, 2022

How financial markets and the economy performed last time the Federal Reserve took away the punch bowl by raising its policy rate and pursuing quantitative tightening. Things worked out fine that time. Will it be different this time? Topics covered include: Where did the phrase take away the punch bowl come fromHow central bank actions can slow the economy and lower inflation.The difference between having cash and having wealthHow quantitative easing and quantitative tightening … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: central banks, Federal Reserve, quantitative easing, quantitative tightening

383: How to Be a Successful Contrarian Investor

April 20, 2022 by David Stein · Updated May 7, 2022

How contrarians combine value and momentum to take positions opposite what the consensus believes. What is the consensus view in today's financial markets and how are contrarians positioned. Topics covered include: Five attributes of successful investorsWhy does the consensus expect stagflationHow central banks have performed in previous tightening cyclesThree reasons central banks tightening results in a recessionWhen have interest rates peaked in prior tightening cyclesHow stocks … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: central banks, contrarian, pessimism, quantitative tightening, recessions

342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?

May 12, 2021 by David Stein · Updated April 19, 2023

How today's inflationary environment is similar and different from the great inflation of the 1970s. What are the best assets to protect your portfolio if the next great inflation is here. Topics covered include: How is inflation measured and why the pandemic made calculating inflation difficult What causes inflation Why is inflation increasing currently What caused the great inflation of the 1970s Which assets are best to own to protect against inflation Show … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: central banks, commodities, dividend investing, dividend stocks, equity REITs, inflation, inflation expectations, inflation hedge, inflation-indexed bonds, money supply, REITs, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities

338: The National Debt, Inflation, and the U.S. Dollar—What Could Go Wrong?

April 14, 2021 by David Stein · Updated January 11, 2023

With a ballooning U.S. federal budget deficit, a growing national debt, and double digit increases in the money supply, is it time to bet against the dollar? Topics covered include: What is driving the double-digit increases in U.S. home prices Why hasn't inflation spiked in line with rising home prices What is the velocity of money and why is it falling What are three schools of thought regarding what causes inflation What is the average interest rate and maturity … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: Bank of Amsterdam, central banks, housing, inflation, inflation theories, national debt, swap lines, U.S. dollar

336 Plus: A Simple Money Supply, Money Creation Analogy

March 27, 2021 by David Stein · Updated April 29, 2021

In Plus Episode 336 for the week of March 27, 2021, we discuss some new site additions for Plus members. We also explore an analogy to explain under what circumstances the money supply and purchasing power increase and under what circumstances they don't. We use the analogy to explain what is happening currently and under what circumstances it could lead to higher inflation. Finally, we review why Hoisington Investment Management Company believes inflation will stay low and interest … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: bank lending, central banks, Federal Reserve, Hoisington Investment Management, inflation, money creation, money printing, money supply, quantitative easing

336: Own What Is Real

March 24, 2021 by David Stein · Updated April 19, 2023

There has never been this much money in the world. Now is the time to own real property. Topics covered include: How to buy something with Bitcoin How cryptocurrencies are similar and different from fiat currencies What is legal tender Why there has never been this much money in the world Why central banks can control interest rates but not inflation What real property should investors own Show Notes The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession by Peter … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Podcast Tagged With: central banks, collectibles, Federal Reserve, inflation, modern monetary theory, money creation, money supply, quantitative easing

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