In Plus episode 501, we review why Federal Reserve Chair Powell said the Fed isn't in a hurry to lower its policy rate. We revisit why interest rates are increasing. David shares the expected return, ranges, and maximum drawdown of his portfolio. We analyze why buffer ETFs can lag the underlying reference assets when the stock market is appreciating. … [Read more...]
495: The Federal Reserve Cut Rates. What Should We Do Now?
What does the Federal Reserve's policy rate cut mean for our portfolios? Will interest rates keep falling? What changes should we make? Topics covered include: What determines interest rates, and where are those drivers currently What is the best estimate of bond returns How duration works and why it changes What are some current fixed income investment options Show Notes Asset Camp FedWatch—CME Group Summary of Economic Projections—US Federal … [Read more...]
433: What Happens If The U.S. Defaults On Its Debt? Here’s Why It Won’t
What are the grave consequences if the U.S. debt ceiling isn't increased and the government defaults? What would the Federal Reserve and the Executive Branch do to prevent default if Congress doesn't act? Topics covered include: What are the potential impacts of a U.S. default on the stock and bond markets, and the overall economy What causes the U.S. to have a perennial debt ceiling crisis Why it is uncertain when the U.S. government would run out of money to meet its … [Read more...]
428: How the Coming Credit Crunch Could Harm the Economy and Real Estate Prices
How accelerating bank deposit withdrawals could harm the economy, including real estate prices. How dollars slosh around the financial system but always seem to end up at the Federal Reserve. Topics covered include: How many deposits have left banks since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse How much have banks borrowed from the Federal Reserve to meet deposit withdrawals Why exiting deposits are harming bank profits and causing them to make fewer loans How the credit crunch … [Read more...]
424: Are More Bank Runs Coming? The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
What caused Silicon Valley Bank to collapse in only 44 hours, and how likely will the contagion spread leading to other bank failures? Topics covered include: How losses on bonds blew up SVB's balance sheet How is Silicon Valley Bank similar and different than other regional banks What the FDIC and Federal Reserve are trying do to restore confidence and stop bank runs How a weakening of the Frank-Dodd bank regulation act set the stage for SVB's failure Why bailing out … [Read more...]
388: Will Quantitative Tightening Lead To Even Greater Financial Losses?
How financial markets and the economy performed last time the Federal Reserve took away the punch bowl by raising its policy rate and pursuing quantitative tightening. Things worked out fine that time. Will it be different this time? Topics covered include: Where did the phrase take away the punch bowl come fromHow central bank actions can slow the economy and lower inflation.The difference between having cash and having wealthHow quantitative easing and quantitative tightening … [Read more...]
382 Plus: How High Will Interest Rates Go, A New Portfolio Holding, and Setting Limit Prices
In Plus Episode 382, we review previous Federal Reserve tightening cycles to see when and at what level longer-term interest rates peaked. We also review a new closed-end fund holding in David's portfolio, the BlackRock Debt Strategies Fund (DSU). This new fund replaces the iShares Interest Rate Hedge Corporate Bond ETF (LQDH). We also discuss how to decide what limit price to set when trading a closed-end fund or ETF. … [Read more...]
336 Plus: A Simple Money Supply, Money Creation Analogy
In Plus Episode 336 for the week of March 27, 2021, we discuss some new site additions for Plus members. We also explore an analogy to explain under what circumstances the money supply and purchasing power increase and under what circumstances they don't. We use the analogy to explain what is happening currently and under what circumstances it could lead to higher inflation. Finally, we review why Hoisington Investment Management Company believes inflation will stay low and interest … [Read more...]
336: Own What Is Real
There has never been this much money in the world. Now is the time to own real property. Topics covered include: How to buy something with Bitcoin How cryptocurrencies are similar and different from fiat currencies What is legal tender Why there has never been this much money in the world Why central banks can control interest rates but not inflation What real property should investors own Show Notes The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession by Peter … [Read more...]
312: What the Federal Reserve’s New Policies Mean For Your Finances
The Federal Reserve just updated its policy tools. What impact could that have on inflation, interest rates and your investments. Topics covered include: Why is the Federal Reserve more transparent in its communication than it used to be.What are the Federal Reserve's Congressionally mandated goals.What are four economic developments that has caused lower inflation and motivated the Fed to adjust its strategy for achieving its goals.Why inflation could be higher than the Fed's 2% … [Read more...]
