In Plus Episode 382, we review previous Federal Reserve tightening cycles to see when and at what level longer-term interest rates peaked. We also review a new closed-end fund holding in David's portfolio, the BlackRock Debt Strategies Fund (DSU). This new fund replaces the iShares Interest Rate Hedge Corporate Bond ETF (LQDH). We also discuss how to decide what limit price to set when trading a closed-end fund or ETF. … [Read more...]
337: Why in the World Would You Own Bonds?
With interest rates rising does it still make sense to own bonds? Yes. This episode explores the role of bonds including why they are more effective at hedging stock losses than protective put options. Topics covered include: David's business and investment philosophy How bond funds have performed in 2021 Three disparate views on the direction of interest rates from Capital Economics, Ray Dalio, and Hoisington Investment Management Company How to invest in China … [Read more...]
332 Plus: Comments on Interest Rate Increases, Recent Portfolio Trades, and Online Platforms For Purchasing Private Companies
In Plus Episode 332 for the week ending February 27, 2021, we put the recent jump in interest rates into historical context. We look at what determines interest rates and the secular trends that have led to lower interest rates. We review portfolio trades David has made in his portfolio in February. Finally, we look at various platforms for purchasing private companies including EquityZen and CrowdStreet. … [Read more...]
312: What the Federal Reserve’s New Policies Mean For Your Finances
The Federal Reserve just updated its policy tools. What impact could that have on inflation, interest rates and your investments. Topics covered include: Why is the Federal Reserve more transparent in its communication than it used to be.What are the Federal Reserve's Congressionally mandated goals.What are four economic developments that has caused lower inflation and motivated the Fed to adjust its strategy for achieving its goals.Why inflation could be higher than the Fed's 2% … [Read more...]
309: Investments to Fight Financial Repression
What are some investments that can generate a cash yield greater than inflation in an era when central bank policies keep government bond yields lower than the inflation rate. Topics covered include: How low are interest rates around the worldWhat have inflation rates been and what causes inflation and deflationWhat is financial impressionWhy are central banks keeping short-term interest rates so lowWhat determines interest ratesHow I-bonds workWhy active bond mutual funds can be … [Read more...]
264: What Happens If U.S. Interest Rates Turn Negative?
Recently, the yield on the 30-year government bond in Germany went negative for the first time ever. Now there are 15 trillion dollars of bonds around the world, about 25% of the world’s bond supply that are priced so they earn a negative yield. That effectively means that investors are paying someone to hold their money. That there’s a cost to actually investing. The Math Behind Negative Yielding Bonds Most bonds that have a negative yield were not issued with a negative interest … [Read more...]
255: With Interest Rates Falling, Why Do You Own Bonds?
How an asset class such as bonds can play different roles in your portfolio depending on your investment philosophy. In this episode you’ll learn: What are bonds and how can they be used in investment portfolios.What is interest rate anticipation.Why individuals have an advantage over institutions because they don't have to worry about outperforming a benchmark when it comes to bonds.Why U.S. interest rates could rise and fall from current levels.Why China is unlikely to sell all … [Read more...]
249 Plus: Mid Month Update, More on Options, and a Bond Duration Review
In Plus episode 249 for the week of April 20, 2019, we review market conditions as of mid April including performance, recent economic releases and what needs to happen for the market rally to continue. We also continue our discussion from Plus Episode 246 in analyzing the CBOE WisdomTree CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Strategy Fund including the discussion of delta, notional value and why the strategy might be used. Finally, we review the concept of duration and price changes for bonds fund … [Read more...]
246: What Central Banks Don’t Know Should Concern You
Why an inverted yield curve is disconcerting given such low interest rates. Why those low rates could lead to radical central bank policies during the next recession. In this episode you’ll learn: What is an inverted yield curve and does it signal a recession is coming.What determines interest rates.What is the neutral equilibrium real rate of interest and why it matters.Why is the Federal Reserve considering make up strategies that allow inflation to rise up its 2% target and what … [Read more...]
201: Is Your Portfolio Unbalanced?
Why most conventional portfolios make huge and often unintended bets on the stock market. How role-based investing can lead to a more balanced portfolio. Photo by Mangrove Mike In this episode you’ll learn: Why asset class returns and volatility are driven by changing expectations.How most investors are making a huge bet in stocks even though they might not be aware of it.The benefit and challenges of holding assets that perform well during various economic regimes.Why … [Read more...]
