Our allocation to risky assets should vary based on the expected return, volatility, risk aversion, and how much we can earn risk-free. That means we should be taking less risk right now. Listen to learn why. Topics covered include: Why there are so few billionaires Why the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management imploded Why how much to invest is more important than where to invest How the Merton share formula can assist with determining what percent of our wealth to invest … [Read more...]
450: How Higher Interest Rates Alter Our Financial Blueprint
We explore six impacts of higher interest rates on housing, capital projects, stock buybacks, excess returns for stocks, bonds, and other asset classes, and individual opportunity costs. Topics covered include: Where current interest rates stand Central banker predictions for how long cash yields will stay this high Why housing is the least affordable since the early 1980s Why new apartment building construction has collapsed What has been the excess return for stocks, … [Read more...]
449: The House of Cards: Evaluating Economic and Financial Warning Signs
What are the economic and financial system early warning signs that we should heed rather than get caught up in fearmongering? When should we start to worry about ballooning budget deficits, the national debt, a currency collapse, or the stock market? Topics covered include: Signals to monitor to see if things are falling apart How much government debt is too much and why interest rates are key Why central banks don't control the stock market Why the dollar remains dominant, … [Read more...]
448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium
Why you might want to lock in higher yields now, given real interest rates are the highest they have been in 15 years. Topics covered include: What was covered this year at the Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium What are the primary policy actions central banks take, and how do they influence interest rates What is the neutral real rate of interest, and why is it important Why new ideas are central to an increasing standard of living What would drive interest rates … [Read more...]
447: Our Car Was Attacked. Is Property Crime Increasing?
David shares how thieves recently tried to smash and grab his luggage from his car while he was still inside it. He then explores property crime trends, whether they are increasing or decreasing, and why. Topics covered include: How thieves have stolen luggage from the same gas station multiple times per day What have property crime rates been in the U.S. over the past few decades and since the end of the pandemic What are reasons property crime rises and falls What is … [Read more...]
446: Die with Zero: Why You Should Start Spending Now
How to balance saving, investing, and spending for a fulfilling life. Why you will probably reach your peak net worth sooner than you think and should start drawing down your nest egg earlier. Why we can't optimize for a fulfilling life but can still have one. Topics covered include: How to estimate how much to spend from your retirement assets so you die with zero What is time bucketing, and why it doesn't work for everyone How to balance the fear of making a change with the … [Read more...]
445: From Boom to Bust—Why China’s Stocks Lagged Behind Its Economy & Where to Invest Next
Explore the surprising disconnect between China's booming economy and its underperforming stock market, and discover where the next investment opportunities lie. Topics covered include: How badly has China's stock market performed except for one remarkable decade What are the economic and governance factors that contributed to the underperformance Why it's too soon to write off China despite the structural headwinds What are the factors that contribute to economic growth and … [Read more...]
444: Natural Disasters: Are They Truly Increasing?
From raging wildfires to devastating floods, how are these natural events reshaping our financial landscape? What if anything, should we be doing with our investments as a result? Topics covered include: The devastating Maui wildfire: What are the factors that led to one of the deadliest wildfires in US history. Global wildfire trends: Are they really increasing? The data might surprise you. The role of insurance companies: Learn how the giants of the reinsurance world, like … [Read more...]
443: Five Surprising Insights About Stock Indexes and Funds
Some insights only come by having the right tools. We share five things we have learned about stock index valuations, earnings, currency, and why value investing isn't dead. Topics covered include: How index providers divide the stock universe into large and small, growth and value The difference between the price-to-earnings ratio and earnings yield and which is better How earnings volatility can impact annual earnings growth and what to use to estimate future earnings How … [Read more...]
442: Crisis-Proof Investing: Strategies for a Shaky Future
Given climate change and other risks, how should you invest for the next forty years? Topics covered include: What predictions from the last forty years came true and which didn't Why the next forty years will have a lot of similarities to the last forty years despite the promise of AI Why the scale and complexity of the world make big transitions away from oil, cement, and natural gas unlikely Why economic growth and consumption will likely continue leading to positive … [Read more...]
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